By BAGEHOT
POLITICAL scientists are often sniffy about campaigns. They think that campaigns have at best a minimal impact on election results and sometimes have none whatsoever. Alan Abramowitz, an American political scientist, expressed his discipline’s received wisdom with reference to his country’s elections in an article in the Washington Post:
When you’re in the middle of a campaign there’s a tendency for people, especially in the media, to overestimate the importance of certain events. These include high-profile gaffes, vice-presidential selections, controversial ads and other moments that capture so much attention…Those things have no measurable impact. The media are interested in getting people’s attention, but a lot of stories you read or see are focusing on things that are trivial. The way campaigns play out is largely determined by fundamentals.
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